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- APPLIED FINANCIAL PHYSICS -

No Moving Averages.
No Fibonacci Retracements.
No Gann Rules.
No Elliott Waves to Count.
No Overbought/Oversold Oscillators.
No Non-linear Curve Fitting.
- Just hard-core physics applied to the financial markets -
Though it doesn't appear mathematically possible, only One Functional Equation is used across ALL Markets and Timeframes - thus, the "Stealth" indicator name.
View a Recent Example of the "Stealth" Indicator Here.
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Our Two Favorite "Stealth" Indicator Unsolicited Compliments |
1) This Looks Bogus to Me.
We could think of no higher praise. Thank you.
2) This indicator/channel looks suspiciously like JM Hurst's envelopes from his early-70's book (a true classic).
Again, thanks for the compliment. Here are a few comparative comments to hopefully clarify the differences.
Hurst Channels are built using displaced moving averages. There are no moving averages associated with the "Stealth" Indicator.
The Hurst Channel method requires the user to "select[ing] the span of the [moving] average properly." As there are no moving averages associated with a "Stealth" Indicator," there is no such requirement.
Hurst Channels have a "constant-width." A "Stealth" Channel has no such limitation; their channel width can contract, expand or remain constant over time.
Hurst Channels are adaptive. That is, they require new price information to reshape the ever changing (adaptive) channel over time. "Stealth" Channels have no need for continuous price adaptation or any adaptation at all. The predictive "Stealth" Channel is fixed over time and has no need to readjust to new data (unless, of course, an established trend ceases and a new trend begins).
Hurst Channels can only predict about the length of one-half the duration of the chosen moving average. Even so, the moving average must be predicted by the user in order for this predictability to exist. Since the "Stealth" Channel is built around physics, the underlying formula can be used to predict well into future time periods.
Hurst Channels are built bottom-up. That is, a displaced moving average is first calculated, and equidistant envelopes (channels) are then placed on either side of this displaced moving average. Though, at a casual glance, the "Stealth" Channel may appear to "look" like a Hurst Channel; the "Stealth" Channel is formed first and the median line is then calculated second. Also, close examination reveals the Hurst Channel and "Stealth" Channel have very few common characteristics.
Hurst Channels, rooted on a displaced moving average concept, must closely follow price. Again, the "Stealth" Channel has no such requirement. Reference Orange Juice futures and the Russell 2000 futures charts below for a couple of examples.
In the event the observer was referring to Hurst's Fourier Analysis of the DJIA, the Hurst method forms channels in a frequency domain; whereas, the "Stealth" Channel is evident in the time domain.
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Our Prized "Stealth" Indicator ! Date of Discovery - August 18, 2001 |
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- A Stealth Indicator Example - Advanced Market Trending Identification = Advanced Market Predictability |
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| First, view this typical price chart | 10-Year T-Notes Futures |
| Next, we add this well defined "Stealth" Channel and observe it predicts a change in market trend. | 10-Year T-Notes Futures |
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we fast forward in time and note the precision of the "Stealth"
Channel as a leading market predictor. As of today, this
approximate 3 year-old "Stealth" Channel
remains intact. No other trending indicator can do this - period.
If you have a difficult time believing this indicator's capabilities, explore its performance below. |
10-Year
T-Notes Futures
Does the above "Stealth" curve resemble the trajectory plot of a heavenly body in orbit (3-D orbit geometrically projected on a 2-D plane) upon which external gravitational forces influence its path of travel? It should. Also, reference these excellent three (3) Java applets and one (1) .avi movie; One, Two, Three and Four. Lastly, Filters are important as well. |
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- Numerous Examples Provided Below - |
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"Every body continues in its state of rest, or of uniform motion in a right line, unless it is compelled to change that state by forces impressed upon it. ... The change of motion is proportional to the motive force impressed; and is made in the direction of the right line in which that force is impressed." - Sir Isaac Newton - Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica (Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy); 1687 |
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." - Sir Isaac Newton - Frustration with mass market behavior upon losing 20,000 pounds after re-entering an equity investment in the South Sea Company at a market top. |
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Little did Newton know that his own scientific work would have meshed beautifully with modeling of market psychology as HiTech Analytics, LLC has now discovered. |
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The "Stealth" Indicator |
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Simply put, this discovery is huge. Below you will find numerous chart examples of this newly discovered "Stealth" indicator.
1) It is not linear (it captures the non-linearity of financial data that is often ignored / overlooked / misunderstood / misapplied). It captures financial market subtleties that basically go visually undetected using standard linear indicators.
2) It does not use an optimizing routine or algorithm to fit its non-linear curve. This means it uses the same formula across all markets.
3) The "Stealth" indicator can project into future time periods, rendering it a truly leading indicator. "Stealth" support and resistance curves can be combined in a single chart to construct a "Stealth" Pricing Channel.
4) Drawing a "Median Line" curve within the "Stealth" Channel provides another means of support/resistance and price segmentation. Prices generally tend to stay on either side of the Median Line versus crisscrossing it often.
The charts below require Adobe Acrobat Reader. Please be patient as as the charts load, and make use of the Adobe zoom tool to ascertain higher levels of detail.
General "Stealth Indicator" Chart Interpretations
Disclaimer: The following general Stealth Indicator chart interpretations are not trading, investing and/or hedging advice. They are how Brian K. Lee, the indicator's discoverer, interprets the Stealth curves for his own personal trading. These guidelines are provided to assist the reader in simply understanding how one individual uses the information to his advantage. Dealing in futures contracts involves a high degree of financial risk which is not limited to the amount of capital one pledges as margin. Consult your professional financial advisor or broker prior to making any financial decisions. The vast majority of commodity traders are net monetary losers.
| Only trade in the direction of the Stealth trend. That is, go Long (Short) only in an uptrending (downtrending) market. |
| Only trade at or near a bounce off a Stealth curve or Stealth median line. |
| Always enter a trade with a contingent stop loss order, or employ some other type of meaningful stop loss mechanism. Since the Stealth charts indicate closing prices only, it's important to note recent market volatility prior to deciding on a stop loss price. An alternative to open stop loss orders (which do not necessarily limit loss at the established stop loss price) is the appropriate use of protective futures options. Protective futures options can eliminate catastrophic loss in lieu of open stop loss orders (consult your broker). |
| Pass on a trade where the anticipated stop loss exceeds personal money management trading criteria. |
| Is the market trending? If not, analyze another market. There are just too many market opportunities out there that offer excellent trending characteristics to attempt to "force-fit" a trend in a market that is simply not there. |
| If a market is trending, how is it trending? |
| What is the volatility (vertical price range) of the trend (current, past, future)? |
| What is the direction of the trend? |
| What is the slope of the trend over time? |
| How old is the trend? Put less faith in immature trends. A rule of thumb is to not trade based upon a Stealth curve less than 8 months old and/or a Stealth curve that has been tested/confirmed fewer than 4 times. |
| Does the current trend assume a change in price direction? That is, does the Stealth curve(s) bend? If so, it's best to wait for confirmation of the price change direction before trading in the new direction (Gold and 10-Year T-Notes futures are each great examples). |
| Is the Stealth Channel contracting, expanding, or relatively constant? |
| How many times has the trend been tested/confirmed without meaningful penetration? Some markets exhibit over 10 tests/confirmations without meaningful Stealth curve violation. Confidence in the Stealth curve increases with each successful test of the existing curve. |
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Has the median line
acted as support/resistance? If so, how many times? If the
median line has acted as support/resistance on several occasions,
one's confidence in the overall Stealth Channel should increase.
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Even though a trend
is violated, that doesn't mean the "Stealth" curve is/was
inaccurate. It supplies valuable information that a trend has
likely ended and can no longer be trusted for trading purposes (an
excellent example is the Spanish IBEX 35 Index below). Some
markets take months before a trend develops, similar to linear
trends. Two other nice examples of Stealth curve violation are
the Russell 2000 and Lumber markets. Their recent, respective
Stealth curve violations were abrupt and of extreme magnitude
(approximately 20% market move for each within a very short
timeframe).
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| A Stealth curve acts as a make-or-break market division. |
| People inherently just like straight lines versus curves, because that's what most all technical analysis texts teach. Those who overcome this traditional technical analysis limitation will experience a trending market where none apparently existed before. Note examples below for periods where the markets appear to be nontrending (T-Notes / Natural Gas to name a couple) when they actually remain fully entrenched within a well defined Stealth Channel. |
| The Stealth Indicator is NOT a trading system. That is, it has no specific market entry/exit points. Its goal is non-linear trend identification for predictive pivot point reversal purposes. This is not to say one cannot quantify the value of such an indicator. Click Here for a spreadsheet calculation of one "loose" measurement of its worth in the first 6 weeks after its discovery ($127,000?). |
Examples
All Charts depict Closing Prices.
10-Year T-Notes Futures #1 (Prices hug this "Stealth" Support curve as defined by the two (2) initial pivot Lows and offers a Long Exit at the Peak at trend terminus.)
10-Year T-Notes Futures #1a (The current "Stealth" Support curve as defined by numerous pivot Lows.)
10-Year T-Notes Futures #1b (The current "Stealth" Resistance curve as defined by numerous pivot Highs.)
10-Year T-Notes Futures #2 (This entire "Stealth" Channel, using a revised, front-month contract, is now over 660 trading days old and still in effect. And yes, both curves use the exact same formula, just a different pair of Pivot Lows and Pivot Highs for each. Note the expanding and contracting nature of the price channel as it limits pricing action. A median line has been added also. The pricing action appears to want to stay above or below this median line once a break is made. Remember, all three curves are actually three straight lines in a unique data dimension.)
10-Year T-Notes Futures #3 (Update of above chart - Two (2) days after prices tested the uptrending "Stealth" Support curve, the market closed +1 point higher, or +$1,000 per contract). See zoomed view Here.
10-Year T-Notes Futures #4 (Update of above chart - After the terrorist attacks on the U.S. and a sharp price acceleration, T-Notes remain within the defined "Stealth" Channel.) Click Here for super-zoomed view.
10-Year T-Notes Futures #5 (Current look of the Stealth" Channel.)
10-Year T-Notes Futures #6 (Current look of the Stealth" Channel - This is almost beyond belief. Prices continue to snake up this approximate 3-year-old Stealth" Channel with a market move approaching +$1,000 per contract since yesterday's close.)
10-Year T-Notes Futures #7 (Current look of the "Stealth" Channel - All trends must come to an end. This approximate 3-year trend may finally have terminated this week.)
10-Year T-Notes Futures #8 (Rolling over to the March 2002 front-month contract - You couldn't ask for a nicer channel exit. Prices exited, fell and rebounded back exactly to the lower "Stealth" curve, now acting as "Stealth" resistance, only to fall again.)
10-Year T-Notes Futures #9 (Rolling over to the September 2002 front-month contract - Another beautiful Stealth" Channel forms. - See comments at bottom of chart document.)
Silver Futures #1 (Long-term 1983-2001! - In approximately 5,000 trading days, this "Stealth" Resistance curve has been tested 6 times and has yet to be successfully penetrated)
Silver Futures #2 (Short-term view with "Stealth" Channel and median line. This 1+ year "Stealth" Channel suggests increased price volatility.)
Silver Futures #3 (Update of above chart. Price volatility increased as forecast. Prices moved above "Stealth" Resistance, and it remains to be seen if prices remain outside the Channel or re-enter.)
Silver Futures #4 (Rolled over to the March 2002 front-month contract. Prices not only re-entered the defined channel; the market fell hard only to reverse up near the "Stealth" Support Curve. Note how trend-line, break-out traders would have been burned by a false short entry; while the "Stealth" Support Curve correctly identified a potential reversal which did transpire.)
Nasdaq-100 Futures #1 (Note how "Stealth" Support transformed into "Stealth" Resistance)
Nasdaq-100 Futures #2 (Current look at this market's "Stealth" Channel)
Nasdaq-100 Futures #3 (Contracting "Stealth" Channel - At today's close, this market has reversed 222 points or the equivalent of $22,200 per contract since the most recent test of the "Stealth" Resistance curve just seven (7) trading days ago.)
Nasdaq-100 Futures #4 (Update of above chart after shifting to December front-month contract. - The market has now moved from the top "Stealth" Resistance curve a total of 458 points or the equivalent of $45,800 per contract in just fourteen (14) trading days.)
S&P 500 Futures (Long-term Monthly "Stealth" Support curve. Exit just below 1200 and re-enter at 1200. Exit near peak.)
S&P 500 Index (Connecting two major pivot Lows produces a "Stealth" Support curve that tracks the upswing and signals the initial point of price decay.)
S&P 500 Index (Today 9-21-2001 the S&P500 Index closed on this "Stealth" Support curve.)
S&P 500 Index Update (Prices bounced off the above "Stealth" Support curve.)
S&P 500 Index Update (This "Stealth" Support curve turns into "Stealth" Resistance.)
Corn Futures (No "Stealth" Curve needed here. This quarterly chart of Corn futures shows prices have been trending down in a most uniform fashion for many years now. An definitive upside break of this channel will likely result in a sustained uptrend.)
Cotton Futures (Prices never definitively broke through "Stealth" Resistance)
Cotton Futures #2 (Current look at Cotton's approximate year-long, very tight, contracting Stealth" Channel that has recently been breached. Notice the number of times the median line acted as support/resistance.)
Orange Juice Futures (Prices are currently respecting this "Stealth" Support curve.)
Natural Gas Futures #1 (The "Stealth" Support curve defined by the two (2) bottom Pivot Lows correctly contained the price uptrend for approximately a 100% move.)
Natural Gas Futures #1a (The current "Stealth" Resistance curve has contained every uptrend thus far.)
Natural Gas Futures #2 (Contracting Channel - The Upper "Stealth" Resistance Channel has been tested six (6) times and the the Lower "Stealth" Support Channel six (6) times.) - Super Zoomed View
Natural Gas Futures #3 ("Stealth" Channel with median line added after a definitive break of "Stealth" Support in the direction of the established downtrend. The market downtrend and "Stealth" Resistance curve remain solidly intact.) Click Here to view the current 60-Minute "Stealth" Support curves.
Natural Gas Futures #4 ("Stealth" Channel with adaptive, internal cyclic channel added. Pricing action practically remains within the smaller channel which provides a nice, short-term cyclic view within the longer-term trend. Note the uniformity of the Low-to-Low (distance in time) inner channel cycles.)
Natural Gas Futures #5 (Here is a slight variant of the "Stealth" Channel. Note this current market is near its "Stealth" median line.)
Natural Gas Futures #6 (Market update using the original "Stealth" indicator after rolling over to December front-month contract. This market moved up big today and closed today much closer to its "Stealth" median line.)
Natural Gas Futures #7 (Market update - This market crossed its "Stealth" median line, came down to test it and bounced off big (single-day market move of +$2,300 per contract today.)
Natural Gas Futures #8 (Market update - This market is approaching its "Stealth" Resistance curve.)
Natural Gas Futures #9 (Market update - Once again, the "Stealth" Resistance curve held as this market moved +$3,200 per contract from the previous trading day's close.)
Natural Gas Futures #10 (Market update - Here the market has almost traversed the entire width of the "Stealth" Channel. Note the proprietary relative volatility indicator which has been added to the chart. As can be seen, the indicator is in an extreme location, typically indicative of market reversals.)
Natural Gas Futures #11 (Bingo! - Update using April Front-month Contract - As expected, the market did indeed traverse the entire width of the "Stealth" Channel and bounced up once it contacted the lower boundary of the "Stealth" Channel. Prices then fell back to the "Stealth" Support curve and bounced up again. If this market continues its well-defined trend from its all-time peak over a year ago, where will the market go? Just look at the "Stealth" Channel for the answer.)
Natural Gas Futures #12 (True to the "Stealth" Channel, the market has once again moved from "Stealth" Support curve to "Stealth" Resistance curve, but this time very quickly. Will the "Stealth" Channel hold yet another time?)
Natural Gas Futures #13_SOS (New - Variation on the theme, "Son-of-Stealth" Indicator. This new indicator suggests some additional upside potential. Note: This green indicator has no dimension and is simply overlayed on the pricing chart. The "Son-of-Stealth" Indicator tends to reverse at major market reversal points. Also note each of the two "Son-of-Stealth" trend lines emanates from the all-time market peak.)
Natural Gas Futures #14_SOS (Bingo ! - Looks as though the market reversed exactly where is was supposed to based on our new "Son-of-Stealth" Indicator. The move from the recent peak closing price two days prior is $1,940 per contract.)
Natural Gas Futures #15_SOS (Bingo Again ! - The market shot up huge to the "Son-of-Stealth" Indicator again and closed at $3.466 per MMBtu yesterday. True to form, the market dropped once again and gained $1,100 per contract since yesterday's close.
Pork Bellies Futures #1 ("Stealth" Channel with median line)
Pork Bellies Futures #2 (This market closed limit down today and is very close to its "Stealth" Support curve.)
T-Bond Futures (Here is the current look at this market's "Stealth" Channel with median line. Note how price still respects this 2-1/2+ year-old channel after a meaningful excursion.)
Sugar #11 Futures (Here is an example of two beautiful "Stealth" Support curves. The current curve is approximately 1-year old.)
Cocoa Futures #1 ("Stealth" Channel has recently been penetrated to the downside.)
Cocoa Futures #2 (This shows the potential next "Stealth" Channel.)
Cocoa Futures #3 (Prices closed today on this "Stealth" Resistance curve.) As a matter of fact, the earlier posted "Stealth" Channel is back in play again. We now have two different competing channels (uncommon occurrence). This competition will be resolved very soon as depicted in this chart, Cocoa Futures #4.
Cocoa Futures #5 (Updating to the May 2002 front-month contract - Well it's been quite evident the highly bullish "Stealth" Channel won out. As this trend unfolded, the upper "Stealth" Resistance curve was adjusted downward to capture the resistance levels being addressed in the market. Once this happened, notice how well the median line offered several support/resistance points. Again, this is an indication the currently defined "Stealth" Channel is a well developed one. The original bullish "Stealth" Channel could have been shown just as easily as the market continues to climb within it. However, it's very easy to refine the tuning of the trend to better capture market turns within that original channel. This is quite similar to a carpenter's slight adjustment of a level in order to ensure the "bubble" is dead center. Based on the currently defined channel, a potential market decline appears to be in order very soon. )
Lumber Futures (As of today, prices have moved back up +10.0 points approaching the "Stealth" Support curve. Possible strength above and weakness below this curve.)
Lumber Futures Update (The "Stealth" Support curve did act as a make-or-break curve as prices fell 20% in fourteen (14) trading days ($6,468 per contract).)
Yen Futures (Support held on 4 occasions as prices penetrated the "Stealth" indicator on the 5th attempt and subsequently headed much lower)
Yen Futures #2 (Current view of this market's "Stealth" Channel.)
Yen Futures #3 Update (Prices have moved 268 points since reversing on this market's "Stealth" Resistance curve and 149 points or $1,862 per contract since the original post of this "Stealth" Channel two (2) trading days ago. This market now rests on its "Stealth" median line.)
Yen Futures #4 Update (Prices exited the above defined support curve and fell nicely over +700 points or +$8,750 per contract (see HERE - note how price bounced nicely one more time prior to breaking through "Stealth" Support). This update is a view of the current, well defined "Stealth" Support curve.)
Eurodollars Futures (Current look at "Stealth" Support)
Copper Futures (The current "Stealth" Channel has been near vertical for numerous months. The lower "Stealth" curve and "Stealth" median line have been tested repeatedly, much less so with the upper Stealth" curve.)
Copper Futures #2 (Update of above chart. Prices continue to remain in the lower half of this downtrending "Stealth" Channel and have fallen 215 points or $537 per contract since the above post.)
Copper Futures #3 (Update of above chart. Prices have bounced off this converging "Stealth" Support curve and "Stealth" median line, much like a pinball, over the past 2 weeks. Today alone, prices bounced off the "Stealth" median line and fell 125 points or $312 per contract since yesterday's close.)
Copper Futures #4 (Updating to May 2002 front-month contract. Note how price exploded out of the contracting "Stealth" Channel (reference above chart). While the current "Stealth" Support Curve is not considered a well defined trend due to the small number of market "tests," it will be interesting to see how the market develops from here. As the newly forming trend begins to become more apparent, this will serve as the "best guess" trend at this point in time. Note the beginning of this "Stealth" Support Curve is from a major market Low almost 3 years ago.)
Copper Futures #5 (This market fell and bounced nicely off its "Stealth" Support Curve since the last update. This market is up +$650 per contract since the most recent bounce a few days ago.)
Copper Futures #6 (This fairly recent defined "Stealth" Support Curve has been broken - weakness below, strength above.)
IBM #1 (Monthly Chart of the "Stealth" Support curve not being violated with any conviction until just after the stock hit its peak)
IBM #2 (Alternative look. By moving the "Stealth" curve to the next set of cycle Lows on the Monthly Chart, one would have exited Long positions much sooner and near the same peak price)
Interest Rate Index #1 (TYX) (Weekly Price Chart bounces around the "Stealth" Resistance curve until its fairly recent break-out. The "Stealth" Resistance curve now serves as Support meaning the Index can conceivably continue to fall much further before hitting this "Stealth" Support again.)
Interest Rate Index #2 (TYX) (An alternative view of the same Weekly Price Chart suggests the trend is still down unless price can once again move above this "Stealth" Support curve.)
US Dollar Index Futures #1 (Example of two recent "Stealth" Support curves based on different Pivot Lows.)
US Dollar Index Futures #2 (Current look at a well defined "Stealth" Support curve.)
US Dollar Index Futures #3 (Update - Price retreated, bounced of the "Stealth" Support curve and have now returned back down to the curve.)
US Dollar Index Futures #4 (Update - Yet another nice bounce and return to the "Stealth" Support curve - Strength above, weakness below.)
US Dollar Index Futures #5 (Updating to June 2002 front-month contract. - After a small move up, we now have a break of the 1+ year "Stealth" Support curve. Generally, when there is a clean break of the curve, a new trend is in the process of developing -time will tell.)
US Dollar Index Future #6 (Well, time did tell. It is now approximately two months since the break of the "Stealth" Support curve mentioned above. Note the market has not moved higher than the point of break (a trait prevalent in many of the charts on this page). This market has gained over +$5,000 per contract since the break.)
Russell 2000 Futures #1 (Example of a short-term "Stealth" Resistance curve combined with a long-term "Stealth" Support curve.)
Russell 2000 Futures #2 (Update of above chart - After prices exited this converging "Stealth" Channel, this market fell 20% for a move of +$50,000 per contract.)
Russell 2000 Futures #3 (Example of two additional "Stealth" curves.)
Lean Hogs Futures (Prices are near the bottom of an upper sloping "Stealth" Channel. Click Here for a complete view of the "Stealth" Channel.)
Lean Hogs Futures Update (Prices have now moved up to, and closed exactly on, the "Stealth" median line.
Lean Hogs Futures Update (Prices reversed down from the "Stealth" median line and today closed on the "Stealth" Support curve.)
Lean Hogs Futures Update - 60 Minute Bars (Prices are now practically sitting on both the 60-Minute and Daily "Stealth" Support curves, make-or-break time.)
Lean Hogs Futures Update (Today prices opened and closed limit-up (+200 points) for a market move of +285 points (+325 points) since the post above last Tuesday (Thursday). Note: Pinnacle data rolled over to the December 2001 front-month contract.)
Lean Hogs Futures Update (Prices closed down 100 points yesterday (Friday), and this market is once again approaching its "Stealth" Support curve (currently 94 points above the curve). There appears to be a fairly decent potential for heightened volatility (up or down) the first part of next week.)
Lean Hogs Futures Update (As inferred above, prices did indeed become even more volatile closing down 127.5 points today. This market now rests just under its "Stealth" Support curve.)
Lean Hogs Futures Update (Updating to June 2002 front-month contract - Prices exited the well defined, up-trending "Stealth" Channel since the last update and have moved down approximately 1,400 points or +$5,600 dollars per contract since the channel exit. Note the market never rose higher than the channel exit price established six (6) months ago.)
D-Mark Currency Futures #1 (Prices are currently near this "Stealth" Support curve. Note this curve is only approximately 9 months old. This is a potential make-or-break time.)
Gold Futures #1 (Prices are currently following this "Stealth" Channel which is approximately 1-year in length.)
Gold Futures #2 (Update of above chart - Prices have moved up considerably within the current, upward sloping "Stealth" Channel.)
Gold Futures #3 (Current Gold chart indicates prices have fallen and closed today on its "Stealth" Support curve.)
Gold Futures #4 (Current Gold chart indicates prices once again bounced exactly off its "Stealth" Support curve for a current market move of approximately $400 per contract.)
Gold Futures #5 (Current Gold chart indicates prices fell today to again retest this market's "Stealth" Support curve.)
Gold Futures #6 (Updating to the current front-month contract - It's obvious the Gold futures market, while adhering to the upward bias, has now altered its trend. If it continues to follow this new trend, prices will maintain an upward bias with decreased volatility (as defined as the vertical price difference from each side of the current "Stealth" curve.))
Crude Oil Futures #1 (The current "Stealth" Resistance curve)
Crude Oil Futures #1a (If prices are repelled once more by this "young," approximated "Stealth" Resistance curve, it will become much more meaningful. Today, prices closed on the "Stealth" Resistance curve. "Stealth" Support has yet to definitively present itself. )
Crude Oil Futures #2 - 60 Minute Bars (Prices are currently resting on the 60-minute "Stealth" Support curve as the daily chart above is on the "Stealth" Daily Resistance curve. If there is a breakdown of support on the 60-minute chart, this will mesh with the daily resistance curve holding.)
Crude Oil Futures #3 (The "Stealth" Resistance curve is breached, albeit by a small amount. A potential new "Stealth" Support curve has been "pencilled-in" which assumes today's "Stealth" breakout is a valid one. Of course, time will tell whether or not it is a true break.)
Crude Oil Futures #4 (Update of above chart after rolling over to a new front-month contact. Price barely re-entered the "Stealth" Resistance curve after the brief excursion. The defined "Stealth" Channel is at a terminus point where something apparently must give. A break (up or down) has the potential to be quite abrupt.)
Crude Oil Futures #5 (This is getting interesting. Prices closed near the lower "Stealth" Support curve.)
Crude Oil Futures #6 (This market did indeed break abruptly, to the downside again confirming "Stealth" Resistance for now, to the tune of $6.38 per barrel or $6,380 per contract from its initial contact with the established resistance curve.)
Crude Oil Futures #7 (Here's a slightly different, new look at the "Stealth" indicator (It makes use of a slightly different non-linear data domain). As it is again too early to define the "Stealth" Support curve, this is simply one of numerous possibilities for now.)
Crude Oil Futures #8 (Update of above chart after rolling over to December 2001 front-month contract - It looks as if this "Stealth" Channel has potential as prices bounced off the "Stealth" median line once again.)
Crude Oil Futures #9 (Update of above chart after rolling over to February 2002 front-month contract - Price has violated the "Stealth" Support curve and has yet to prove it can re-enter.)
Crude Oil Futures #10 (Updating to the April 2002 fronth-month contract - We're starting to gel now. Looks as if the originally defined "Stealth" Channel is the more precisely defined. This is an excellent example has to how one observes the unveiling trend develop before the proper Channel presents itself. Note the number of times the "Median Line" has been successfully tested (eight?). The "Median Line" is an excellent tool used in determining the validity of the currently defined Channel. Generally, the greater the number of times the market successfully tests the "Median Line," the greater the assumed Channel validity. Now that the "Stealth" Support curve has also added another successful "test," this Channel is now considered very well defined.)
Crude Oil Futures #11 (Updating to the May 2002 fronth-month contract - Crude shoots into the upper portion of its well-defined "Stealth" Channel, retreats to the "Median Line" and bounces off it yet again. Market weakness exists below and strength above this well-defined "Median Line." See a wide-angle view of the "Stealth" Channel Here.)
IBEX 35 Index (This well-formed "Stealth" Channel for the Spanish stock index was recently violated to the downside. Note the numerous support/resistance episodes relating to the "Stealth" median line as well as the channel itself. Whether or not this is a short-lived excursion or a full-fledged channel break remains to be seen. Would you have realized this latest price drop was a violation of a major 1-year trend?)
ADSX (Weekly Chart - Applying "Stealth" Support and Resistance forms a non-linear "Stealth" Channel. The narrowing "Stealth" Channel in this chart correctly identified a pending change of direction, the beginning of almost a 100% decline in this example. Note that prices fell through the exact intersection of the Channel curves (as defined by both price and time), a decent exiting point. Penetration of the Support curve at $9 was sideways and not forceful in nature allowing the faithful investors to enjoy much larger rewards.)
GE (Long-term Quarterly Chart - The indicated "Stealth" Channel would have indicated exiting long-term, long positions near the peak.)
MSFT (This "Stealth" Channel likely expired when resistance was firmly broken to the upside. However, the interesting point to note here is that prices respected the "Stealth" Channel even after the short excursion below "Stealth" Support. We are now awaiting a new "Stealth" trend to unfold.)
EBAY (This contracting "Stealth" Channel will eventually come to an end. An interior "light blue" curve is added to show the formation of a "Stealth" Support curve within a "Stealth" Channel.)
QQQ (Beautiful contracting "Stealth" Channel that has about served its useful life on the Q's. This market has recently been riding on top of the "Stealth" Curve, serving as support. However, it could easily re-enter the narrowing channel. Note the number of bounces off the "Stealth" Median Line. As long as this "Stealth" Channel exists, it predicts prices no lower than he high 20's. As has been shown in other examples on this page, a narrowing "Stealth" Channel usually is followed by abrupt market movements (see Copper and Russell 2000. Updated note- also see Yen and Hogs as additional examples.)
VIX (Very nice examples of "Stealth" Support and Resistance Curves. Unless the bottom drops out of the OEX market, this "Stealth" Resistance Curve is all but over. The "Stealth" Support Curve continues to exist and suggests a possible, very near-term drop in the OEX market. We currently await the formation of a new "Stealth" Resistance Curve. As stated above, these two curves (though they do not appear so) are calculated using the same, functional equation.)
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More examples are forthcoming.